PREDICTION MARKET
HELLO Club Prediction Markets let you speculate on real-world and crypto events, with the winners taking home the prize. As well as the creator.
What is it?
HELLO Club Prediction Markets let you speculate on real-world and crypto events, from Killer Whales’ SWIM/SINK outcomes to major market moves. Every bet is on-chain, every win pays in $HELLO, and every trade strengthens the $HELLO ecosystem.
Harnessing Collective Intelligence
Our platform introduces a decentralized prediction market where users can speculate on the outcomes of future events. By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," these markets aggregate collective belief to produce forecasts that are often more accurate than individual experts or traditional polling.
Participants engage by buying and selling shares in the potential outcomes of a given event. When the event concludes, shares corresponding to the correct outcome receive a payout from the total prize pool, while shares for incorrect outcomes lose their value. This mechanism not only provides a dynamic trading environment but also creates a powerful, real-time indicator of public sentiment and expectation.
Market Mechanics: A Scenario
To illustrate how the prediction market functions, let's consider a simple scenario.
A market is created with the question: "Will Event X 'SINK' or 'SWIM'?"
Total Pool: The total value of all bets placed on all outcomes is $1,000.
Winning Outcome: The event concludes, and the verified outcome is SINK.
Betting Distribution: 40% of the total pool was locked on the SINK outcome.
Share Price: Each share for an outcome is priced at $1.00, paid in $HELLO tokens.
Calculating Shares and Payouts
Calculating Outcome Pool Size: First, we determine the total value locked on the winning "SINK" outcome.
1,000(TotalPool)×40%=$400
Calculating Total Shares: Since each share costs $1.00 worth of $HELLO, we can determine the number of shares for the winning outcome.
400(SINKPool)÷$1.00(pershare)=400 SINK shares
Calculating Payout Per Share: When an outcome is declared the winner, the entire prize pool is distributed among the holders of the winning shares.
1,000(TotalPool)÷400(SINK shares)=$2.50 per share
In this scenario, for every $1.00 in $HELLO tokens a user spent to buy a SINK share, they received a payout of $2.50, realizing a 150% profit. If SINK had lost, the value of their shares would go to $0.
Incentives and Governance
Creator Rewards
To encourage the creation of engaging and high-quality prediction markets, creators are rewarded for their contributions. The creator of a market receives a 2% fee from the total prize pool, but only if the market resolves successfully and is not cancelled.
Example: For a market with a $1,000 total pool, the creator would receive a reward of $20.
Moderation and Market Integrity
The integrity of our prediction markets is paramount. All markets are ultimately resolved by platform administrators to ensure accuracy and prevent manipulation.
However, the community plays a vital role in self-regulation. Users can downvote a prediction they believe to be ambiguous, flawed, or malicious. A significant number of downvotes will automatically freeze the market and notify administrators for review.
If the market is deemed invalid: It will be cancelled, and all participants will be able to claim a full refund of their initial bet.
If the market is deemed valid: The freeze will be lifted, and the market will resume as normal.
Fee Structure
A flat 10% fee is applied to each bet placed within the prediction market. This fee is essential for sustaining the platform's ecosystem and is distributed as follows:
3.0% - Treasury: Funds allocated to the project's treasury for ongoing development, operational costs, and strategic growth.
2.5% - Burn: A deflationary mechanism where a portion of the tokens is permanently removed from circulation, increasing the scarcity and potential value of the remaining tokens.
2.5% - Rewards: Distributed to platform stakeholders, such as users in a HELLO Club Tier or liquidity providers, as an incentive for participation.
2.0% - Creator: The reward paid to the user who created the prediction market, as detailed above.
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